Snowy owls may be more common this winter after last year’s near-total absence
Peterborough Examiner – December 6, 2024 – by Drew Monkman
It’s hard not to love winter finches like evening and pine grosbeaks, redpolls, siskins and crossbills. Their mysterious, nomadic nature and colourful plumage makes them a favourite of bird lovers everywhere. And, you never really know with certainty what species might turn up at your feeders or in your crab-apple tree. Finch numbers, however, fluctuate widely from one year to the next. It all comes down to the status of the wild food crop in the boreal forests of northern Ontario and Quebec.
As long as seed and berry crops are good in the north, the birds stay put. When the crops are poor, however, they move southward – or east or west – in search of food. They sometimes fly thousands of kilometres to find it. Finches are especially dependent on the cones, seeds and berries of birches, alders, American mountain-ashes, pines, tamaracks, and spruces.
Much of the annual data on seed and fruit abundance in the boreal forest comes from foresters, volunteer naturalists and Ministry of Natural Resources and Forests staff. This year, observers in the north have noted a big food crop. According to Tyler Hoar, who puts together an annual winter finch forecast, this means that most winter finches will probably stay put in the boreal forest.
You can follow finch wanderings this fall and winter on eBird, on the Finch Research Network website at https://finchnetwork.org/, and on the Finches, Irruptions and Mast Crops Facebook group.
Evening grosbeaks
One exception to this year’s trend may be evening grosbeaks. There was a widespread and diverse berry crop across the eastern boreal forest in 2024, providing an ample food source for fledging grosbeaks. By the end of August, however, many areas with berries were barren, having been consumed by the grosbeaks and other birds and mammals.
With a visible movement at the bird observatory in Tadoussac, Quebec in early August, Hoar is forecasting a moderate flight of evening grosbeaks southward this winter. There have already been sightings of flocks near Catchacoma Lake and at Garden Hill near Rice Lake.
This species helped spark my interest in birding in the 1960s when huge flocks turned up annually at our backyard feeder on Wallis Drive. Some people describe them as the Incredible Hunk version of American goldfinches, given their similar colours but bigger size, ferocious eyes and outrageously large beaks. Grosbeaks prefer black oil sunflower seeds, especially when made available on platform feeders. They also dine on the seeds of Manitoba maples and ashes.
Snowy owls
The most exciting news, however, is that a sizable snowy owl “irruption” has materialized in Ontario over the last couple of weeks. An irruption is when a large number of birds move outside of their typical range, usually due to low food supply. Birders are keeping their fingers crossed that this year might see the first moderately heavy flight in several years.
Last winter, the only sightings in the Kawarthas were in the Lindsay area and on Clear Lake, where a snowy owl was rescued from a steel drum. According to Clear Lake resident Ed Dillon, the bird had entered the drum – presumably because it saw a mouse or vole – and couldn’t extend its wings enough to fly out. When he tipped the drum on its side, the owl exited unscathed.
Over the last couple of weeks, there have already been sightings of snowies in Peterborough, Warsaw, and Presqu’ile Provincial Park. There are also reports of snowy owls breeding in the Ungava Peninsula of northern Québec this summer. The magnitude of their breeding success is still unclear, however. Interestingly, the Ungava was the epicenter of the 2013-2014 mega-irruption when thousands of snowies came south. You’ll find a host of information about snowy owls and their movements at https://www.projectsnowstorm.org/
Winter weather forecast
Once again this year, fall weather was much warmer than normal. The monthly mean temperatures for both September and November were a whopping 2.5 C warmer than the 1971-2000 average, while October was 1.4 C warmer. Because of “changing baseline syndrome” however, it comes as a surprise to many people when I point out just how abnormally warm this fall has been. Changing baseline syndrome refers to the phenomenon where people’s perceptions of “normal” environmental conditions shift over time due to gradual changes in temperature or climate. As the climate warms, people adjust their expectations to new, higher temperatures and quickly forget how much cooler temperatures used to be. This is one of many impediments to action on climate change.
According to the Weather Network, December will feature wintry conditions leading up to the holidays. At this point, it looks like Peterborough will receive an average to below average amount of snow over the coming months, but temperatures will be above normal. January and February will see periods of mild weather prevailing over periods of colder weather. We should, however, see significantly more snow than last year’s record-mild winter.
New climate change numbers
CO2 levels: The global atmospheric CO2 reading for the week ending November 30 was 424.59 parts per million (ppm), compared to 420.31 ppm a year ago. The highest level considered safe for the world’s climate is 350 ppm. We surpassed this level in the 1990s. Source: CO2.earth at https://www.co2.earth/
Local temperature averages: The average temperature for the last 30 days in Peterborough was 3.6 C. This is 2.2 C above average. Looking back over the last 365 days, the average was 8.6 C or 2.7 C warmer than usual. This is the hottest 365-day average temperature ever recorded here. Source: CBC Climate Dashboard at https://tinyurl.com/yaew76nc
Warmest year on record: 2024 is expected to be the warmest year on record, with the global average temperature for January–October 2024 being 1.54°C above pre-industrial levels. This is the first time the world has exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for that period.
Despite efforts to mitigate climate change, the earth is still on track to exceed 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century based on current policies and pledges. This is significantly above the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement. Most countries – including Canada – are still failing to meet their emissions reduction goals, and the gap between what is needed and what is pledged remains wide. The gap is expected to get even worse under a Trump presidency and if Pierre Poilievre becomes prime minister of Canada.
Per Capita Emissions: Canada remains one of the highest per capita emitters of greenhouse gases in the world. In 2022, Canada’s per capita emissions were around 15-16 tons of CO₂ per person, which is more than double the global average (around 6 tons per person) and similar or even slightly higher that of the United States. This high rate is largely due to Canada’s reliance on fossil fuels, particularly in sectors like oil and gas, heavy industry, and transportation.
